Time: 2 p.m., Monday
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.
Records: Ducks (11-2), Badgers (11-2)
Coaches: UO's Chip Kelly (33-6, .847), Wisconsin's Bret Bielema (60-18, .769).
Latest line: Oregon by 6 1/2
On air: ESPN.
What's at stake: For Oregon, affirmation and validation of a great three-year run. Let's be honest, the Ducks have been fantastic while winning three consecutive Pacific-12 Conference titles. But what does all of that mean beyond the West Coast if Oregon can't win a bowl game, let alone defeat a winning team from East of the Rocky Mountains? A win today would give the Ducks their first major bowl win since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl and their first Rose Bowl championship since 1917. A loss and the Ducks under coach Chip Kelly will be 0-3 in BCS bowl games, 0-5 against winning, nonconference opponents and call into question their label as a "national" power.
UO offense vs. Wisconsin defense: The Ducks should feel comfortable about this matchup. Wisconsin has allowed just 17 points per game, sixth fewest in the country, but hasn't faced anything resembling Oregon's fast-paced style and the speed it presents out of the backfield. Unlike Ohio State (2010 Rose Bowl) and Auburn (2011 BCS National Championship Game), the Badgers lack a dominant front four that can disrupt Oregon's running game. Once the Ducks get rolling on the ground, their no-huddle kicks into a high gear and the scoreboard operator begins experiencing finger cramps. In many ways, Wisconsin resembles Stanford's defense: Tough, hard nosed and smart. But both lack the foot speed to track down the likes of running backs LaMichael James, De'Anthony Thomas and Kenjon Barner. The Ducks defeated the Cardinal 53-30. Michigan State hung 471 yards of total offense on Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Look for Oregon to produce about the same.
UO defense vs. Wisconsin offense: Oregon should feel uncomfortable about this matchup. UW is not only explosive but it also can grind and is not prone to make many costly mistakes (eight turnovers this season). The offensive line is huge, averaging 6-foot-5, 320 pounds. Running back Montee Ball has amassed 1,759 yards with 32 touchdowns. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for 2,879 yards and 31 touchdowns with just three interceptions while completing 72.5 percent of his passes. And when he has to, Wilson can run, having gained 320 yards rushing with five scores. Oregon has enough size and speed on defense to make scoring a challenge for the Badgers but the Ducks have not faced an offense this potent in both areas all season long. UW is averaging 466.9 yards per game (14th in the country). Oregon ranks 59th in total defense (381 yards per game). The good news for UO is that it hasn't allowed a ton of points, 23.6 per game. Also, Wisconsin's lone weakness on offense is that it has allowed 23 sacks this season. Oregon this season has collected 43, tied for first in the country.
Individual matchup to watch: Oregon's running backs versus Wisconsin's linebackers. The Badgers best chance to slow down Oregon's offense will require linebackers Chis Borland and Mike Taylor to make the proper reads, fill holes and prevent James, Barner or Thomas from getting into the secondary. Taylor ranks 13th in the nation with 137 tackles. Borland is tied for 20th with 131. Both are key reasons why Wisconsin ranks No. 8 in total defense, allowing 293 yards per game.
Key statistic: 46.1 and 44.6. The first is the Ducks scoring average, which ranks No. 3 in the country. The second is Wisconsin's, No. 4.
Key injuries: Oregon – None.
They said it: "I think if we stop one of their key things they'll have to try something different, something they're not accustomed to, something they're not so used to that it might get a little dicey for them. So as long as we kind of take them out of their rhythm I think we'll be fine." -- Oregon linebacker Michael Clay.
Prediction: The Ducks are due for a BCS bowl win and Wisconsin is just the right opponent. The Badgers will do their thing on offense but won't be able to slow down the Ducks enough to win. Oregon 41, Wisconsin 33. Validation, at last.
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